Star player

first_imgStar playerOn 15 Oct 2002 in Personnel Today ForBernard Buckley, super-interim status comes from being a skilled salesman andstrategist. By Sally O’Reilly Inevery walk of life, there are those who make a living, and those who stand outas top performers. And the IM sector is no exception. Even when business isslow for providers, and the majority of interims are left waiting for the phoneto ring, there is an elite group who are in constant demand, frequently movingfrom post to post through personal recommendation, and having the luxury tochoose between assignments. But what distinguishes this group from their lesssuccessful peers? And can others learn from their experience?BernardBuckley is a man who can provide some of the answers. He is unquestionably inthe league of ‘super-interims’, and has spent the past seven years tackling ahuge range of diverse senior HR appointments. He believes the secret of hissuccess lies in the experience he gained before he began his life as an interim– and some very careful planning.”Inmy previous life, I worked for a variety of organisations, including BritishOxygen, where I was the youngest senior HR executive in the group, and TheLondon Stock Exchange. I finally ended up as HR director, Europe, with theNational Australia Bank Group, setting up an integrated HR function for theEuropean business – a massive job,” says Buckley. “When I left, I hadseveral job offers, but they were all more of the same thing. So I stood backand decided what I wanted out of the rest of my career.” Althoughhe initially saw interim as a stop-gap while he decided on his next move, hewas won over almost immediately. “My first assignment was four months inthe public sector, where I had never worked before. It was my first experienceof understanding how to deal with the bureaucracy.” Right away, he sawthat IM was a way to use his broad experience to dramatic effect.”Youare going in with no baggage, no induction period, and you agree what you aregoing to do and over what period of time at the very beginning,” heenthuses. “You are using all your skills, and getting the best out ofpeople, often without having any management control over them. There is nopolitics, and no worry about the historical situation; you go in there withfresh ideas.”Buckley’ssenior HR experience meant he was eligible for very challenging, board-levelposts – but it was his flexible and thorough understanding of what his new rolemeant which kept him in the fast lane. “A lot of my time out was forplanning – developing my CV and so on. I knew I was going to be working in adifferent way. As a senior corporate HR director, your reputation is important,but you aren’t selling yourself. As an interim, selling and marketing yourselfis vital. You have to demonstrate that you have done a range of differentthings, and the depth of your experience.”Heis also clear about where his strengths lie, and how they might fit into a neworganisation. “I would see myself as very definitely a generalist, and mykey skills are organisation, design and development in changeenvironments,” says Buckley. Being aware of his skills also means he isfocused about how they can be applied. This is an attribute he believes iscommon to all super-interims.”Thereare groups of ‘super interims’ and they don’t just rely on suppliers, they arebusy reading the FT, seeing what’s going on in industry and where opportunitiesmight lie,” he stresses. Buckley cites the example of his interimappointment with consultancy e21, whose start-up he read about in the financialpress. Thisgroup also uses different networks to find new work. “Networking iscentral to keeping your career on track: it keeps you up to date with what ishappening and gets you new appointments,” says Buckley. “Insome of my jobs – such as my assignment at the Stock Exchange – I’ve set upexternal networks, with the aim of creating a forum to exchange ideas aboutorganisational, management development and other HR issues. And I’ve kept intouch with them ever since. Suppliers also have networking events, and it’simportant to keep up your links with them.”Reputable,well-established consultancies have an important role to play, particularly forIMs with less experience in marketing themselves, says Buckley. “There are a number of topconsultancies which are very critical in terms of getting known in theindustry,” he says. “Agencieslike BIE, Odgers, Impact Executives, Interim Leaders, Ashton Penney andBrooklands Executive fill large strategic roles, and will often pick just oneperson from their database, because they know they are the right fit for thejob.”It’salso important to use assignments to develop your experience, and fill existingskills gaps. “I pick assignments which I know will be good for my CV –companies in the FTSE 100, or public sector mergers, or high-profile financialinstitutions, for instance.”Thenappointments add to your professional reputation and development, and at thesame time increase your skills and raise your profile.”Beingprofessional and organised may help put you in the super-interim league, butBuckley stresses that to stay there, you need to maintain your energy andenthusiasm levels by taking regular breaks and holidays. “I plan my timevery carefully at the beginning of each assignment: currently I have booked myholiday right through until next April,” he says. “And I rarely workbetween mid December to mid January. You can take the initiative – although itdoes take time to have the confidence to do this.”Confidenceis also needed when it comes to choosing an assignment – Buckley points outthat there are some jobs that no one in their right mind would take. “Ihave been offered assignments which were a poisoned chalice, and the best thingis to turn these down, even if you have no other work on the horizon,” hesays. “You can be labelled for life if your name gets attached to adisastrous assignment – often, this can be a lack of clarity or clearobjectives at the outset.”Sayingno does get easier, Buckley believes. “The key thing is to be clear aboutwhat is required from the beginning,” he says. “And you do need toknow where the line of authority is.” He also turns down work whichinvolves a long commute. “I won’t do assignments which involve metravelling three or four hours a day. I left permanent employment because therewas too much travel.” So his current assignment in the City is ideal – hewalks there from his home in Wapping in just 20 minutes. Doesthis mean he has found the perfect way of working, which is stimulating, lucrativeand even allows him a decent work-life balance? Buckley thinks he still hassome way to go. “My aim is to work less – to use my experience to a pointwhere I can work with organisations on a non-executive or consultancybasis,” he says. Buthe is more than satisfied with what he has achieved so far. “I like beingoutside the political perspective – and the fact there is an end-date means younever get bored,” he says. “There is a particular piece of work youhave to get done, it’s challenging – and you move it forward.” Related posts:No related photos. Previous Article Next Article Comments are closed. last_img read more

Adjunct Instructor – VCUarts – Art Foundation Program

first_imgCampusMonroe Park Campus Does this position provide patient or clinical services to theVCU Health System?No Posting Details – Terminal degree in a related field, or training and professionalexperience that equates to a terminal degree.- Appropriate teaching experience and/or strong oral presentationand communication skills.- Demonstrated experience working in and fostering a diversefaculty, staff and student environment or commitment to do so as afaculty member at VCU . Recruitment PoolAll Applicants Special Instructions to Applicants Remove from posting on or before Normal work days Position TypeAdjunct – Teaching Required Qualifications Normal work hours Position NumberJ00001 Hours/Week Description of the Job Job Code/TitleAJ – Adjunct Job Open Date07/16/2020 Sensitive PositionNo DepartmentArt Foundation Program Supplemental QuestionsRequired fields are indicated with an asterisk (*).Optional & Required DocumentsRequired DocumentsOther DocumentCurriculum Vitae (CV)Optional DocumentsCover Letter/Letter of Application Job CategoryAdjunct – Teaching At VCU, we Make it Real through learning, research, creativity,service and discovery — the hallmarks of the VCU experience. Apremier, urban, public research university nationally recognized asone of the best employers for diversity, VCU is a great place towork. It’s a place of opportunity, where your success is supportedand your career can thrive. VCU offers employees a generous leavepackage, career paths for advancement, competitive pay, and anopportunity to do mission-driven work. The Virginia Commonwealth University School of the Arts (VCUarts)Art Foundation Program(https://arts.vcu.edu/academics/departments/art-foundation-program/)is establishing a pool of applicants for possible adjunct teachingpositions. The pool of applicants could be drawn upon to providetemporary staffing when needed; to provide special teachingexpertise when needed; and/or to meet special programmatic needsnot otherwise provided for within the program. This pool will onlybe assessed when an adjunct opportunity arises. Possible adjunctopportunities could include teaching a course(s) in any of theareas of study offered by the Art Foundation, VCUarts’ first yearart and design program. If an opportunity becomes available, onlythose selected for an interview will be contacted. The pool ofapplicants will remain active until the listed closing date of thejob posting. Adjunct faculty are expected to be enthusiasticambassadors for the Art Foundation Program and have a desire towork with a diverse student population in a collaborative inclusiveand learning-centered community of other adjunct instructors,students, faculty and staff. To apply, please submit application materials via VCU eJobs atwww.vcujobs.com. Only electronic applications submitted via eJobswill be accepted.Application materials should include the following:• Current CV• A list of three current references including names, addresses,phone numbers, and email addresses (references will not becontacted prior to applicant’s approval), and• Portfolio of work—visual documentation of professional work, andexamples of student work, if available.CV + list of references should submitted as one PDF in the“Curriculum Vitae (CV)” section of eJobs; and, due to file sizelimitations, the portfolio of work should be submitted in the“Other Document” section of eJobs as an accessible link in a PDFthat points to a website or cloud storage (with accessinstructions) to view all visual work. Resource CriticalYes Anticipated Hiring RangeVCUarts Standard Adjunct Rate Organizational Overview Working TitleAdjunct Instructor – VCUarts – Art Foundation Program Preferred Qualifications Is any portion of this position grant-funded?No Does this position require a pre-placement medicalassessment?No Additional Information Quick Linkhttps://www.vcujobs.com/postings/99586 Open Until FilledNolast_img read more

Statehouse Internships Available by Wendy McNamara

first_img FacebookTwitterCopy LinkEmailShare Students and recent graduates looking to gain valuable real-world experience should apply for the Indiana House Republican Internship Program, which takes place during the 2020 legislative session.Paid internships are full-time and take place during the spring semester at the Indiana Statehouse in Indianapolis. Interns work one-on-one with state legislators and see firsthand how laws are made. Internship positions are open to college sophomores, juniors, seniors, graduate students and recent graduates of all majors. Students can apply for internships in a variety of areas, focusing on legislative operations, communications and media relations, policy or fiscal policy. Students and recent graduates looking to gain valuable real-world experience should apply for the Indiana House Republican Internship Program, which takes place during the 2020 legislative session.Paid internships are full-time and take place during the spring semester at the Indiana Statehouse in Indianapolis. Interns work one-on-one with state legislators and see firsthand how laws are made. Internship positions are open to college sophomores, juniors, seniors, graduate students and recent graduates of all majors. Students can apply for internships in a variety of areas, focusing on legislative operations, communications and media relations, policy or fiscal policy. The positions are full-time, Monday through Friday, lasting from January through mid-March. Interns receive biweekly compensation of $750, and can earn academic credit through their college or university.I highly encourage students from our area to consider applying for this program. I know they will have a rich and rewarding experience.More information about the Indiana House Republican Internship Program, including the application, can be found here. Please share this information with anyone eligible who might be interested. The deadline to apply is Oct. 31.last_img read more

JUST IN: Vectren Approves Merger with CenterPoint Energy

first_imgFacebookTwitterCopy LinkEmailShare TwitterFacebook Vectren Approves Merger with CenterPoint EnergyAUGUST 28TH, 2018 MITCH ANGLE EVANSVILLE, INDIANACenterPoint Energy and Vectren have announced a definitive merger agreement to form a leading energy delivery, infrastructure, and services company.The merged companies will be serving more than 7 million customers across the United States.Under the terms of the agreement, Vectren shareholders will receive $72 in cash for each share of Vectren common stock. CenterPointEnergy will also assume all outstanding Vectren net debt.“This merger represents a significant step toward our vision to lead the nation in delivering energy, service, and value. By combining our two highly complementary companies, we are creating an energy delivery, infrastructure, and services leader that will drive value for our shareholders and customers, while enhancing growth opportunities for our businesses,” said Scott M. Prochazka, president and chief executive officer of CenterPoint Energy.The combined company is expected to have electric and natural gas delivery operations in eight states with assets totaling $29 billion and an enterprise value of $27 billion.By combining their experienced professionals and complementary businesses, CenterPoint Energy and Vectren say they will create a strong, diversified company with compelling advantages and benefits.CenterPoint Energy will contribute an additional $3 million per year for a minimum of five years after the closing of the merger to the Vectren Foundation, which will continue to operate out of Evansville.Both companies say they are dedicated to supporting local charities, fostering employee volunteerism and building partnerships with diverse area businesses.last_img read more

“READERS FORUM” FOR SEPTEMBER 24, 2019

first_imgFacebookTwitterCopy LinkEmailShare,We hope that today’s “READERS FORUM” will provoke honest and open dialogue concerning issues that we, as responsible citizens of this community, need to address in a rational and responsible way.WHAT’S ON YOUR MIND TODAY? We hope that today’s “READERS FORUM” will provoke honest and open dialogue concerning issues that we, as responsible citizens of this community, need to address in a rational and responsible way.WHAT’S ON YOUR MIND TODAY? Todays “Readers Poll’ question is: Are you going to vote in the upcoming November 5, 2019, general election?If you would like to advertise in the CCO please contact us at City-County [email protected]: City-County Observer Comment Policy. Be kind to people. Personal attacks or harassment will not be tolerated and shall be removed from our site.We understand that sometimes people don’t always agree and discussions may become a little heated. The use of offensive language and insults against commenters shall not be tolerated and will be removed from our site.Any comments posted in this column do not represent the views or opinions of the City-County Observer, our media partners or advertise. Todays “Readers Poll’ question is: Are you going to vote in the upcoming November 5, 2019, general election?If you would like to advertise in the CCO please contact us at City-County [email protected]: City-County Observer Comment Policy. Be kind to people. Personal attacks or harassment will not be tolerated and shall be removed from our site.We understand that sometimes people don’t always agree and discussions may become a little heated. The use of offensive language and insults against commenters shall not be tolerated and will be removed from our site.Any comments posted in this column do not represent the views or opinions of the City-County Observer, our media partners or advertise. last_img read more

Michigan City transit workers sidelined after testing positive for COVID-19

first_imgCoronavirusIndianaLocalNews Google+ WhatsApp Facebook Pinterest (Photo supplied/City of Michigan City) Getting around Michigan City may be more challenging for mass transit users as five transit workers are off-the-job in quarantine after testing positive for COVID-19.The buses used by those drivers have also been taken out of service, so they can be thoroughly sanitized, according to the city.Beginning Monday, July 6, the Michigan City Transit will begin a temporary operating schedule:Fixed routes and paratransit services will operate Monday through Friday, 6:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. and Saturdays 8:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m.The commuter route TT-Black line will operate Monday through Friday 6 a.m. to 3 p.m. until further notice.There will be no service daily between 12:30 p.m. and 1:30 p.m. to sanitize buses.Rides will be free, temporarily, to ensure there is no person-to-person contact between drivers and passengers. Facebook Twitter Twitter Pinterest Previous articlePetition circulating to cancel carnival at Indiana State FairgroundsNext articleWoman killed in motorcycle-involved crash on Red Arrow Highway Jon ZimneyJon Zimney is the News and Programming Director for News/Talk 95.3 Michiana’s News Channel and host of the Fries With That podcast. Follow him on Twitter @jzimney. WhatsApp By Jon Zimney – July 5, 2020 0 577 Michigan City transit workers sidelined after testing positive for COVID-19 Google+last_img read more

Elkhart man, 21, arrested for firing gun during argument with family members

first_img Pinterest IndianaLocalNews (Photo supplied/Elkhart County Jail) An Elkhart man was arrested after allegedly firing a handgun into the air several times, alarming family members as they tried to flee.It happened Wednesday, April 7, at a home on Lexington Avenue.Keshawn Words, 21, was arrested after allegedly shooting half a dozen times following an argument with relatives, who sped away from the home in a vehicle, according to 95.3 MNC’s reporting partners at The Elkhart Truth.Words is charged with criminal recklessness with a deadly weapon.He was booked in to the Elkhart County Jail on $3,000 bond. By Jon Zimney – April 12, 2021 0 290 Pinterest WhatsApp WhatsApp Facebook Twitter Google+ Google+ Twitter Elkhart man, 21, arrested for firing gun during argument with family members Previous articleVolunteers needed for the polls during Elkhart Schools referendum vote on May 4Next articleTwo men plead guilty after 2019 robbery attempt at Elkhart Dollar General Jon ZimneyJon Zimney is the News and Programming Director for News/Talk 95.3 Michiana’s News Channel and host of the Fries With That podcast. Follow him on Twitter @jzimney. Facebooklast_img read more

The Infamous Stringdusters Brings Bluegrass Brilliance To Los Angeles’ Troubadour [Photos]

first_imgLoad remaining images One rarity deserves another, like a Blue Moon on Friday the 13th or the Golden State Warriors erasing a 3-1 deficit in the NBA playoffs only to give one right back the next round. On Wednesday night, that double rainbow came by way of a hootenanny on a rainy night in Los Angeles, courtesy of The Infamous Stringdusters at the Troubadour in West Hollywood.The band kicked off their 2019 tour, in support of their upcoming album entitled Rise Sun, with two blistering sets in front of an intimate but jubilant crowd. On Wednesday, the Stringdusters had yet to officially debut their new single, “Rise Sun”, so those who attended were at once blissfully ignorant to what dropped the very next day and perfectly locked into a vintage set from the Nashville bluegrass quintet.The Infamous Stringdusters did well to showcase their talent at every position, passing the leadership hat from one microphone to the next. Jeremy Garrett gave the spotlight a ride while fiddling through “Big River,” “Soul Searching,” “Let It Go” and a cover of U2’s “In God’s Country.” Andy Hall took his dobro for a spin while singing to “Night on the River” and “You Can’t Stop the Changes.” Travis Book took his double bass for a stroll through “Rockets,” “Get It While You Can,” “It’ll Be Alright,” “How Far I’d Fall For You,” “Thirsty in the Rain” and a cover of Sly and the Family Stone’s “I Want to Take You Higher.” And of course, Andy Falco and Chris Pandolfi had their turns at the helm—the former flashing his guitar and vocals on “Peace of Mind,” the latter banging on his banjo to “Machines,” which he wrote at a friend’s place in nearby Santa Monica.And as a unit, they teased attendees with a “2001: A Space Odyssey” jam and joined up to close out the show with “Gravity.” In truth, that synchronicity was evident throughout the sets. As much as each member did to carry his lode in the lead, they were at their best lifting up one another by flexing their collective musical muscle. The most striking rarity of the night, then, wasn’t so much how The Infamous Stringdusters summoned the spirit of a barnyard hoedown in the middle of a sprawling metropolis. It certainly wasn’t that fans still flocked to the Troubadour, despite a (relatively) torrential downpour bringing LA traffic to even more of a standstill than usual. Rather, the greatest anomaly of all was really no anomaly at all. It was just The Infamous Stringdusters doing what they do: trotting out a lineup wherein each member has top-flight ability, both instrumentally and vocally, but from which, somehow, the whole is still greater than the sum of its parts. So, if The Infamous Stringdusters coming to your neck of the woods is a rarity, and they’re passing through on this tour, best believe you shouldn’t wait for an actual Blue Moon to check them out.Checkout a beautiful gallery of photos below from Wednesday night’s show courtesy of photographer Brandon Weil.For ticketing and a full list of The Infamous Stringdusters’ upcoming tour dates, head to the band’s website.The Infamous Stringdusters | The Troubadour | Los Angeles, CA | 1/16/2019 | Photos: Brandon Weillast_img read more

Bob Weir And Wolf Bros Welcome Tom Hamilton, Honor International Women’s Day In Philadelphia [Videos]

first_imgThe performance kicked off with a pair of proven fire-starters in “Hell In A Bucket” and “Bertha”. Bob Dylan‘s “Queen Jane Approximately” came next, followed by the first-ever Bob Weir and Wolf Bros rendition of the Memphis Jug Band‘s “K.C. Moan”, a song Bob Weir and Jay Lane frequently played during their RatDog days.Next, Weir, Lane, and Don Was welcomed a fourth member to their City of Brotherly Love party: local native guitarist Tom Hamilton. Hamilton helped the group through a rendition of “Gonesville” (from Weir’s 2016 solo record, Blue Mountain) and an uplifting reading of Daniel Lanois‘ “The Maker” (a Wolf Bros first) before ceding the stage back to the trio for “Black-Throated Wind”, “Corrina”, and “Deal” to cap set one.When the Wolf Bros returned to the stage for their second set, they clearly had International Women’s Day on their mind. Weir, Was, and Lane kicked off set two with another Wolf Bros debut, “Man Smart, Woman Smarter”. The set continued with a seamless run of jams including “Scarlet Begonias”, “He’s Gone”, RatDog’s “Two Djinn”, “New Speedway Boogie”, “The Other One”, and “Days Between”. As “Days Between” faded out, Tom Hamilton returned to the stage to help lead the group into a reprise of “Man Smart, Woman Smarter”, followed by a set-closing rendition of “Not Fade Away”. When the band returned for their encore, Hamilton joined them once again, augmenting a beautiful “Brokedown Palace” to help send the Philly faithful home happy.Below, you can watch a selection of videos from the performance:Bob Weir and Wolf Bros – “Hell In A Bucket” [Pro-Shot][Video: nugsnet]Bob Weir and Wolf Bros – “Man Smart, Woman Smarter” [Pro-Shot][Video: nugsnet]Bob Weir and Wolf Bros w/ Tom Hamilton – “Not Fade Away” [Partial] On Friday night, Bob Weir and Wolf Bros continued their early-2019 prowl with a performance at the newly renovated and reopened Metropolitan Opera House Philadelphia. The show featured a handful of Wolf Bros debuts in addition to guest spots by local hero Tom Hamilton (Ghost Light, JRAD) and a nod to International Women’s Day. Bob Weir and Wolf Bros tour continues tonight, Saturday, March 9th, with a performance at the State Theatre in Portland, ME. For a full list of Wolf Bros’ upcoming tour dates, head to Weir’s website here.Setlist: Bob Weir and Wolf Bros | Metropolitan Opera House Philadelphia | Philadelphia, PA | 3/8/19Set One: Hell In A Bucket, Bertha, Queen Jane Approximately, K.C. Moan, Gonesville*, The Maker*, Black-Throated Wind, Corrina, DealSet Two: Man Smart, Woman Smarter, Scarlet Begonias > He’s Gone > Two Djinn > New Speedway Boogie > The Other One > Days Between > Man Smart, Women Smarter (Reprise) > Not Fade AwayEncore: Brokedown Palacecenter_img Bob Weir and Wolf Bros w/ Tom Hamilton – “Brokedown Palace” [Partial]last_img read more

Much ado about little: The Brexit

first_img 4SHARESShareShareSharePrintMailGooglePinterestDiggRedditStumbleuponDeliciousBufferTumblr,Brian Hague Brian has more than 25 years’ experience in financial institutions and the capital markets, and has devoted 21 years to serving credit unions through various roles at CNBS, LLC, a … Web: www.rochdaleparagon.com Details It’s only appropriate that we borrow a line (albeit paraphrased) from the Bard of Avon to describe our views about the recent Brexit vote. It should also be noted that the views expressed herein are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the collective views of Rochdale Paragon Group (thus use of the term “we” refers to the author and the voices in his head).First, a little history. The European Union (EU) owes its underpinnings to various narrower coalitions formed on the Continent since the end of WWII. The EU was phased in from 1993 to 2004, with the common currency, the euro, introduced beginning in 1999. So the EU is actually a fairly recent experiment (we recall still using francs on our first visit to Paris, in 2000, although euros were also accepted).The UK rejected the notion of joining the precursor European Economic Community (EEC) initially, but after seeing its economy begin to lag behind other EEC nations, it applied for membership in the 1970s, but was twice rejected by a French veto. Only a change in the French presidency would allow the UK to join (an interesting point, in light of the recent howling by France and other members of the EU opposing the Brexit). However, the UK never adopted the euro, opting instead to retain the pound as its currency.The Brexit referendum came about for three reasons:The British people were tired of a bunch of bureaucrats in Brussels making the rules for them. A rash of overbearing regulations governing everything from blow dryers to toasters, supposedly targeted at environmental concerns, had emerged from the EU leadership, and the British people decided enough was enough.British voters saw some of the weaknesses in the EU that failed to prevent the relatively more dire consequences of the most recent economic downturn in countries like Greece, Portugal and Spain than their EU counterparts (more on those later). And they no longer wanted to be one of the stronger countries (along with France and Germany) that would be called on to fund the next bailout of one of the “weak sisters.”Finally, the open-border policies that come with EU membership were of increasing concern to the Brits, given recent terror strikes in Belgium and France, and the crime waves in Germany that have been associated with various immigrant populations, which are increasing throughout the EU. In other words, the British wanted to be able to control their borders.All of this should sound familiar to us in the US. The current election cycle appears to be about increasing concern over a central government that is flexing its federalist authority as never before, with a breakdown in bi-partisan cooperation that is eroding the system of checks and balances; an increasing conflict over wealth redistribution vs. income disparity (in other words, one group potentially being called on to “bail out” another); and increasing concerns over immigration, along with a desire on the part of many to increase border security.Those emerging philosophical and political battlegrounds might represent one of what we believe are the three key ways the Brexit will affect the US:Should the Brexit ultimately succeed, other EU members will likely see calls for referendums on leaving the EU, and that could spill over into the US (although we’re not likely to see a “Texit” anytime soon). Still, the sentiment may shape the US political landscape – for better or worse – going forward. And, given the closeness of the Brexit vote, and the demographic breakdown between older Brits favoring and younger Brits opposing the leave – we could see an equal divide in US politics growing.Interest rates will likely remain low for quite some time, at least through the end of this year. Overblown (in our view) concerns about the impact of the Brexit on the global economy will lead an already dovish Fed to remain on the sidelines. The two-year Treasury yield has dropped 20 basis points (bp) since the Brexit vote – its lowest point since last October – while the ten-year yield has fallen by 30 bp to within a couple of basis points of its post-recession low four years ago, when QE was in full swing. And fed funds futures have priced in virtually no likelihood of a rate hike as far out as the contracts are being traded, into early 2018.Stock prices will likely remain stable, though volatile, so long as the Fed continues to prop up the economy and the equity market. The S&P has fully recovered from its immediate post-Brexit plunge. The FTSE has performed even better, rallying to a recent high. The French and German markets haven’t fared as well, largely because they see that they’re now acting alone as backstops for future bailouts of the “weak sisters” of the EU. However, they’re not in free fall.(Regarding the last two points, a recent Bloomberg article pointed to the combination of rallying bond and stock prices as a mixed signal on the US economy. However, stock market performance since 2008 has been overwhelmingly attributable to accommodative Fed policy, rather than any indication of the economy’s relative health. Thus it comes as no surprise to us that expectation of continued extreme low rates would cause stocks to rally while bond yields fall.)Before we get into our reasons why, in light of the three points above, the Brexit will prove overblown, we should note that we never believed the EU to have been a well-executed idea to begin with. There’s the fact that the UK was permitted membership without adopting the common currency. Then, we have an EU central bank – the ECB – trying to set monetary policy for the entire Eurozone, while each member country (including Greece) has its own central bank that may set policy in conflict with the ECB. That can’t work well (and didn’t, during the financial crisis). Finally, the idea of a large central European government, given the cultural and other disparities among European countries, was never broadly popular among EU members.Here, then, is our argument for the Brexit being a long-run yawner:Britain – and the rest of the EU – was fine in terms of its economy, its security, and its governance prior to the EU, and it and the rest of the EU will be fine now, regardless of how this all shakes out.Despite recent bully-pulpit rhetoric from other EU nations (and Washington), the UK is unlikely to be punished economically or “pushed to the back of the queue” in terms of trade. The UK remains the world’s fifth-largest economy, a position that it held, interestingly enough, prior to the EU – in fact, it was fourth prior to the emergence of Japan and, later, China. It’s an important trading partner and financial center to the rest of the world, and our closest ally.Having said that, the UK’s GDP is slightly greater than that of California. It is dwarfed by US GDP. Some forecasters are ringing alarm bells over the possibility of a 3% subtraction from British GDP through 2020, and what that might mean for the US. The horror. (What it will mean, if it materializes, is great travel deals to London.)It’s unlikely that Northern Ireland and Scotland, whose voters favored remaining in the EU, will attempt to leave the UK. Those two countries’ history with England dates back to the time this writer’s ancestors were wearing kilts and swinging claymores at Edward Longshanks’ troops, but the Scots just voted against leaving the UK less than two years ago. They’ll grumble, as they always have, but union with England makes a lot more sense than union with the Continent, and has worked well.One anti-Brexit argument that we’ve heard voiced here in the US is that “the EU has kept down the wars.” (We should note our suspicion that those in the US opposed to the Brexit don’t really understand it, but oppose it because the leaders of their affiliated party oppose it.) There’s no evidence to support that notion. Since the end of WWII, the only conflicts on European soil have been in the aftermath of the Cold War, including the Romanian revolution, the wars in Kosovo and Bosnia, and some skirmishes involving Russia and some of its former territories. Conflict in those areas hasn’t slowed down much since the formation of the EU, and most of the nations involved aren’t EU members. Plus, one can hardly argue the EU had much influence on the end of the Cold War. There have been civil conflicts, such as The Troubles in Ireland and the Basque movement in Spain, but those have been addressed by the individual countries, with little or no EU involvement. (There was a skirmish between the UK and France in 1993 over fishing rights in the English channel; however, it was more argument than conflict. No lives were lost, though both sides experienced some thefts of fish.)Thus we believe the most significant impacts on those of us in the US will be continued low interest rates (a boon for some but a curse for others), a continued strong equity market (albeit one propped up by Fed policy), and some potentially interesting implications for the emerging/growing political debate in the US (which would eventually have gotten there anyway). For the rest of the world, following some short-term volatility, it will have limited impact other than perhaps on Germany and France, should they find themselves forced to fund another bailout of a Greece or a Portugal.(A final note: the Brexit is not a done deal, though it looks likely to be. The UK has to file Article 50 to initiate the process, which will take up to two years. Parliament could point to the narrowness of the vote as lack of a clear mandate, and oppose Article 50, but that would result in internal conflict they don’t want. However, if a new election to replace PM Cameron would result in a large victory for a pro-EU candidate, that could be taken as a mandate stronger than the Brexit referendum, which could give Parliament grounds to not file, or at least call for another referendum.)last_img read more